XXIICognitive Bias
Hindsight Bias
Your bias is Hindsight. Seeing outcomes as predictable only after they happen.
Why This Bias Happens
After outcomes are known, memory rewrites uncertainty into inevitability. The mind prefers a coherent past over an honest one.
Example 1
Marcus reminds himself to examine what was truly in his control. This guards against false certainty about what “should have been obvious.”
Example 2
Hindsight experiments show participants claim they knew outcomes all along, despite earlier uncertainty.